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Conservatives could win big in Europe – thanks to young people

As Europeans prepare to vote across 27 countries in the upcoming European Parliament elections, millions of young people will be casting their ballots for the first time. This election marks a significant milestone, especially in countries where the voting age has been lowered to 16, such as Belgium, Germany, Austria, Greece, and Malta.

“It’s a very big opportunity for us because it gives us a voice we never had before,” says Mare Verlinde, a 17-year-old student from Belgium. Her friend, Auguste Duchene, adds, “I think Europe needs to step up and be stronger – we can’t always rely on NATO.”

For this group of friends and many of their peers, the European elections are critical, particularly concerning security. Growing up with the belief that Europe was safe, recent years have challenged this conviction.

Seventeen-year-old Lore Sleeckx expresses concern about potential conflicts in Europe. “My history teachers say they wouldn’t be surprised if a world war happened in the future,” she says, with her friends nodding in agreement. “That really scares me.”

In the 2019 European elections, young voters turned out in record numbers, predominantly supporting green parties advocating for strong climate policies. This phenomenon was dubbed the “Green wave.” However, five years later, the political landscape appears to be shifting.

Polls indicate that an unprecedented number of young voters are now considering right and far-right parties, many of which are broadly Eurosceptic. “We want to do away with the status quo, and that’s why many of my friends are voting for the right,” says Bence Szabó, attending an anti-EU farmers protest in Brussels. Amidst the rumbling of tractors, voices on stage denounce Europe’s elites.

“Everything coming from the right is being demonized,” explains the 25-year-old from Hungary. “But we can actually solve the issues that the left tried to solve – and failed.”

The concerns of young Europeans are varied. This generation, shaped by the COVID-19 pandemic, now faces multiple worries: war in Europe, climate change, an uncertain job market, and a lack of affordable housing. “We are not extremists. We are just angry,” explains Lazar Potrebic, a 25-year-old from a Hungarian minority in Serbia who is entitled to vote.

Lazar and many of his peers feel that traditional parties are not addressing their concerns. “We feel like our needs are not being met. People our age are taking really important life steps. We’re getting our first jobs, thinking about starting a family… but if you look around Europe, rent prices are going through the roof – and it’s hard to get work.”

The frustration is echoed by Giorgio, who criticizes the EU’s current policies. “They were mercilessly criticized when they built fences; but the reality is that what the EU is doing is not working. We have no idea who is coming in: people are falling through the cracks, and they could have a criminal record – meaning that Europe is less secure.”

Far-right politicians have also excelled in engaging the youth through social media. French politician Jordan Bardella, the charismatic 28-year-old leader of the National Rally, has 1.2 million followers on TikTok, making his party appealing to France’s youth. According to one survey, 36% of French people under 24 support him.

“TikTok and Instagram lend themselves to the type of messages that the radical right wants to spread,” says Dave Sinardet. “Simplistic, unnuanced videos on issues like migration, security, and gender.”

In Italy, Matteo Salvini of the far-right League campaigns on Instagram with the slogan “Less Europe, more Italy.” He uses AI-generated images to suggest that “more Europe” means bizarre scenarios like eating insects, men with Jesus-like beards giving birth, and eating pineapple on pizza.

“These messages ignite an emotional response, and that’s why they are boosted by the algorithm, especially on TikTok,” says Prof. Sinardet. “The far right invested in social media very early on – and now, they are reaping the rewards.”

More than six in ten young EU citizens say they plan to vote in the upcoming European elections. Instead of a “Green wave,” this election could see young voters delivering a significant shift to the right, potentially reshaping Europe’s agenda on issues ranging from climate policy to migration and support for Ukraine.

Bence Szabó from Hungary is confident that this shift will result in an EU legislature more attuned to the younger generation’s concerns. At least, that’s their promise on TikTok.

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